Probabilistic Reasoning
for
Robust Plan Execution
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Abstract A planning system must reason
about the uncertainty
of continuous variables in order to accurately project
the possible system state over time. Prior approaches
to planning under uncertainty reason about discrete
possible outcomes but there has been little attention
given to continuous possible outcomes. A method is
devised for directly reasoning about the uncertainty
in continuous activity duration and resource usage for
planning problems.By representing random variables
as parametric distributions, computing projected system
state can be simplified in some cases. Common
approximation and novel methods are compared for
over-constrained and lightly constrained domains. The
system compares a few common approximation methods
for an iterative repair planner. Results show improvements
in robustness over the conventional nonprobabilistic
representation by reducing the number of
conflicts witnessed by execution. The improvement is
more significant for larger problems and problems with
higher resource subscription levels but diminishes as
the system is allowed to accept higher risk levels.
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